The GOAL of this site is to provide Horses that will give the
best effort to win or be in the money. You will increase your
WIN / PLACE percentage using contenders provided by this site.
As a Member, you will find these selections are successful in hitting it's share of
Exactas, Trifectas, Quinella's, DD's, Pick 3's, Pick 4's, Pick 6's, Place Pick All's and Betting Strategies Involving Parleys. Handicapping 4 Horses is
better than Handicapping 5 to 12+ Horses!!
SAMPLE OF LAYOUT
HAWTHORNE___THORO-BET.com___Only__$3.25_Daily._ $23.00_Monthly
Best Tags In Ranking Order Are:_#_c__K__$__F__r_ And View 1st Time Starters Below.
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\ = Class Drop 50%+. / = Class Drop 100%. F = Horse is Fast.
^ = Last Work Bullet. {?#} = Possible Long Shot. * = Claimed Last Out.
c = Good Distance Class. # = Top Distance Class. r = Competitive ROI.
C = Good General Class. $ = Top General Class. H-h = Hidden Virtues.
L = Late Speed (CLOSER). E = Early speed. {C} = Coupled Both OK.
K-k = Kep's Speed/Pace/top-2 J = Jockey/Trainer TEAM. X = 1st LASIX x = BUTE
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1 HAW 1m 70Y {D} CLM 2 HAW 6 fUR {D} ALW 3 HAW 1 MILE {D} M-CLM
___ ____ _____T______ ___ ____ _____D______ ___ ____ _____D________
___ ____Q_____E______ ___ ____Q_____E______ ___ ____Q_____E________
___ ____S____________ ___ ____T_____S______ ___ ____T_____P3_______
_____________________ _____________________ ________S______________
6__MIGHTY _ CcJ 12_POWER _ C#rJHK 8__BEAUT _ LI'L Cc/3JK
3__LITTLE _ $#K 2B_{C} _ ^cX 1A_{C} _ Fc*K
10_KEEPME _ C*E 1__PRINC _ LADHJ{?1} 6__RED T _ cFx{?3}
2__IAMBAD _Jk{?4} 13_FLYER _ crLhK 2__SHE'S _ STARTER ^
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WHO'S THE BEST
I am often asked which ones are the best TAGS, they are all good to use because
each has an average WIN / PLACE hit rate of 38%+, however the
(#,c,K,$,F and r) tags has the most consistency
of WINS and PLACE rates. If one or no # tags are showing then $ tags would be the
best tags to watch.
I have been asked by some members why I don't have tags for the negative things about
the horse. The reason is, there is not enough room for positive and negative tags
plus by adding negative tags can easily cloud the water and make thing more confusing
for the average handicapper.
TAG INFORMATION KEY
Tags are the method I use to give brief insights on the horse without
getting wordy. Taking 100% of handicapping from you is not my goal.
the tags are to be used as easy tools. Example: / Class drop of 100%+,
this is not good on it's own because often more then one horse is
dropping class but it is important to know this.
You may at times disagree with what the tag is telling you. Example:
the tag has flagged the horse with a ( / ), indicating a drop in class
of over 100%. Your formula may prove different. Just remember, the
tags are tools, they are to help you in your handicapping, and for
those who are not handicapper's, these tags gives some insight about
the horse I feel you should know that is important.
You can analyze a horse or horse race, until the cows come home. And
believe me, as many handicapper's as there are, that is how many
different opinions there are on who will win a particular race. Most
good handicapper's are right 30% of the time.
There are literally over a hundreds variables that would be in favor
of any horse's ability to overcome another horse in a race. On the
other hand, the same horse could have hundreds of variables NOT in his
favor.
Any horse in a race can have five or six positive variables combined,
that is strong enough, to over come all of the another horse with more
positive variables.
A horse that has been marked as the horse to beat in a race may have
more positive variables, but may not have the right combination that
will be needed to win the race. This is where long-shots come in to
play, these long-shots most of the time, have less positive variables,
but has the right combination of a few variables to beat everyone in
the race. This can become quite nerve racking as you very well know.
Because of the reason above, you will not find me analyzing any race
or race horse, I let the programs I wrote do that task for me.
The top four contenders more often then not are the horses most likely
to win. All you need to do is to understand the TAGS and apply your
skills at handicapping. The more skilled you become as a handicapper
along with this site, the more successful you will become.
I have confidence that, anyone using the picks provided by this site,
can be successful once they understand the TAGS and the track they are
using.
Picking horses who win or are in the money is only 50% of what horse
racing is about. If you really want to be successful at this game you
need to spend just as much of you time learning good money management.
A good handicapper who is averaging a 30% in the money rate can make
money with good money management. This site contenders averages 100%
to 150% 1st and 2nd when you add them, need I say more.
C = Upper case C indicates that in general the class is good, but
maybe not at the distance.
c = Lower case c indicates that it has good class at the distance.
Often seen with C.
$ = Very good class, higher than average, general class. Note: if no (#) showing
then this tag would be best to watch.
# = Very good class, higher than average, at the Distance, best tag over all.
^ = I have a my own par for work-outs, if the horse worked out at par or
better, then it gets a carrot.
\ = The horse is dropping in class over 50%.
/ = The horse is dropping in class over 100%.
F = Informing you
this horse has competitive speed compared to other horses in the field. This F tag
shows up often in many Stake races or high class Races. If you only see one F in
a race and you think the horse have some other advantages today, then this horse
would be a good bet.
L = Lone late speed (CLOSER).
If there are several early speed horses, then a late speed horse may come
form behind, after the early speed horses burn themselves out. Note: some
horses are capable of both ( L ) & ( E ) Tag.
E = Lone early speed.
This is good in a sprint race 7 furlongs or less. The lone early speed
horse often comes in 2nd, sometimes wins. Note: some horses are capable of
both ( E ) & ( L ) Tag.
{?#} = This horse has a good
chance to be in the money. Several good variables have lined up to give the horse
an edge over the others in the race. Keep in mind that a long shot is a long shot
for a reason, but I give the {?#} tag if I think the horse will give a good effort
for a win or be in the money.
I have found chasing after long shots is a bad investment in the long run this
tag will improve on that.
Note: Backup your bet with a place or show bet because often the PLACE and SHOW
horse will help recover some of you money if the horse does not win.
I have been asked by several members if there was a way to ran the Long Shot Tag
at the time I did not have a way. For the last few months I have been developing
a way to rank the Long Shot tag.
Again these horses should show an interest in the race and give some kind of effort
to be in the money.
You will also notice that from time to time these horses are scratched either by
the Track VET, Track Condition or some other reason.
I give the Possible Long Shot tag to odds of 6-1 to 20-1. Yes many would say 4-1
would be a good start and yes many 4-1 odds that are show as part of my picks do
win, I had to have a cut off point some were.
This is the Points ranking system used on the Posable Long Shot Tags
If points are --> or equal to 400 Then posable Long Shot Tag = {?1}
If points are between 300 and 399 then posable Long Shot Tag = {?2}
If points are between 200 and 299 Then posable Long Shot Tag = {?3}
If points are between 118 and 199 then posable Long Shot Tag = {?4}
Many Long Shots may be showing as part of my picks with no tag because many fall
below the 118 points level, again I had to have a cut off line some were and yes
some do win with 117 point and less.
I am not done with this tag and hopefully will continue to make it better, picking
Long Shots is a tough challenge for handicapper's as you very will know or picking
any winner for that matter.
{C} = You can bet either horse even though if the other coupled horse is
not showing. Or if either horse is scratched including the one
showing the other is still okay to bet. The reason for this is
often I like both and when they are both being used as top four
picks I loose the fifth choice which is often a long shot that
now can move from 5th choice to 4th choice, on your pick sheet.
* = This horse was claimed
last time out. Many handicapper's believe owners
wants to get back there investment as soon as they can, so often they
enter a horse with the honest will to win. ( Not In The Race For Just
a Workout).
r
= I Feel this horse is competitive towards a good ROI.
If the price is to high ( over 10-1 or higher ) may want to pass this horse for now. This tag
may be stronger on one track but not another, keep an eye on this tag.
Keep in mind however many factors will change this
including having more then one of this type of horse in a race. Also
be aware that the other horses who have the (r) could be below the top
four CONTENDERS shown on your pick sheet.
H
= This tag makes you aware that this horse may have one or a few hidden variables
( not showing on the Daily Racing Form )
that could be strong enough to push this horse over the top for a WIN or a good
PLACE bet.
h
= Not as strong as the (H) tag above but has a few variables going for the horse
that should not be over looked, that could be strong enough to push this horse
over the top for a WIN or a good PLACE bet.
J
= Several handicapper's requested this tag. I don't use Jockey's or Trainers
as part of my handicapping because of a low steady hit rate, however I did
make some adjustments that may give the Jockey/Trainer TAG a better hit rate
of over 30% not the normal 20% with no adjustments.
K
= I have been asked many times if I have my own CLASS/PACE/SPEED FIGURES
similar to Dr. William Quirin Class figures or Andrew Beyer Speed Figures.
The answer to the question is yes. The ( K ) tag represents the top 2 of my
figures, keep in mind that no one system is 100% (I Wish), In my handicapping
I use over 20 systems that work in tandem with each other.
k
= Same as the ( k ) above but I can't quite commit to what the figures are showing
me or the point spread not large enough to put ( k ), this will happen now and then
and depending if the other horses are not feeling up to par then this ( k ) has a
good chance of winning or a good place bet.
(Upper Case) X
= Furoseomide
Also called Lasix or Salix, used to pull fluid
from the body. Helps manage exercise induced pulmonary hemorrhage (“BLEEDING”).
Reduction in bleeding may help performance. This drug is Legal on race day.
Usually given 4 hours prior to post. Keep in mind most horses in any given race
are using this drug, the ( X ) is if today is the first time the horse is using this drug.
(Lower Case) x
= NSAIDs
Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs
Phenylbutazone ( Bute ),
Banamine And Ketoprofin, Aspirin we take is in the same medication class works
to reduce inflammation. Used to reduce inflammation associated with athletic
competition. May improve performance of horse because inflammation causes pain
and reduced mobility. Allows to train through minor aches and pains. Typically
withdrawn 24 to 48 hours prior to race day. Keep in mind several horses in any given race
may be using this drug, the ( x ) is if today is the first time the horse is using this drug.
(Zero Tags)
Some times more then I like a horse will have no tags at all don't disregard this
horse because don't forget I am using over 20 horse racing handicapping systems and
for whatever reason this horse pop's up as my 3rd or 4th choice and often a good paying
horse because other handicapper's have dismissed this horse ability to give a good
effort. This Horse can mess-up your exotic plays if you don't include this horse,
same goes for the Posable Long Shot Tags above.